Spirit of '87, '01, or '08?

Whether it's September, October or November - fall seems to be the cruelest season of all for equity market bulls. This is the scenario that I have been positioning myself for all year -- limited risk with the potential for unlimited gain if the market collapses.

My "one winged" Nov SDS condor (outlined below) and my short AMZN 130 call/long AMZN 100 put credit spread ($115 gross, $109 net) are both looking very good.

I want to hedge the AMZN spread and will do so when time decay and/or a further fall in price for the underlying gets the premium for the 135 call down below $50 or so.

November "One Wing" SDS Condor In Place

Able to put the 33-34-53-54 one-wing condor together for $100 gross, ~$79 net. Looking forward to expiration.

October Expiration

Another good month. The Oct DBC 20-21-24-25 condor expired out of the money. The Oct SDS 35-36-50-51 "one winged" condor was fine too, after a brief concern resulting from the equity rally early in the week.

DBC got close to 24 towards the end of the week, so I bought the three DBC 24 calls back at a nickel each today, and the two SDS 36s and the SDS 50 for the same price early in the week, so I made $30 less than if I had held them all the way to expiration, but it was worth it to be able to sleep soundly at night -- and to be able to go to work today without worrying about volatility on options expiration day.

New position -- short 2 Nov SDS 34 puts at an average price of $40 each, for a total of $80 ($74.10 after commissions). I legged in at $30 and $50. I'll build a one-winged condor around them as market conditions permit. Still short-term bullish, but longer-term bearish on the U.S. equities market because of the fiscal irresponsibility of the Obama Administration and the Democrats in Congress (in addition to the trillions in paper that the Fed is printing) -- but I'm flexible.

October Expiration Update - One and a Half Winged Condor

With the market's decline last week, my previously discussed double-short position in the stock market (short 2 SDS Oct 39 puts, long 2 SDS 51 calls) is paying off -- especially since I hedged it this week by buying a couple of Oct 38 puts for a nickel each and selling a 50 call for a quarter.

Not a classic iron condor, but I didn't want to completely cap my profits, just in case U.S. equities decide to tank in the next couple of weeks.

So, with just $200 at risk, I have a $65 credit in my account, with the potential for increased gains if the market continues to decline. A very good position to be in, but I take nothing for granted and will watch the position all the way to expiration.

The risk/reward also looks good on the DBC iron condor -- but I will watch that one too, and take appropriate action if it moves against me.

Options Expiration Results

I was 5 for 5 in September -- to include the original short positions in the 2 Sep Deutsche Bank Commodities (DBC) 22 puts and the Sep S&P 500 Double-Short (SDS) 39 put.

But it was too close for my comfort level (22.43 for the DBC and 39.67 for the SDS), so I added a contract and rolled them down and forward to Oct. The DBC is now a 3 contract 20-21, 24-25 iron condor with a net credit of ~$102 and the SDS is now a 2 contract 36 put short position with a net credit of ~$74.

For those (few) folks who read this blog to see my political screeds, this options stuff is probably not very interesting, but for me, maintaining the freedom to succeed or fail in the capital, commodities and interest rate markets with minimal government interference is a vital part of preserving the Western way of life. Ideally, these markets (to include the derivatives markets) are the vehicles for providing capital formation, price discovery, liquidity and credit in the economy -- and, in return, participants are rewarded or punished based on how well they provide these services.

But I understand that options trading isn't the economic vehicle of choice for most people -- so for those who are interested, I'll be starting a new financial freedom blog in the next few weeks and begin posting my trading strategies and results there.

Entering September Expiration Week

The September 18th expiration looks good. The market hasn't tanked (yet), but it hasn't skyrocketed either, so it looks like the short Sep S&P 500 "Double Short" (SDS) 39 put/long Sep SDS 67 call spread will expire worthless and I'll get to keep the $9.

My other trades look good for Friday too (short the NutiSystem (NTRI) Sep 12.5 put (~$47 credit after commissions), short a Sep Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 25 put/long a Sep CALM 22.5 put (~$44 credit after commissions).

I didn't hedge the NTRI put because I wouldn't have minded owning the stock at 12.5.

I also picked up a few dollars by selling a Sep BB&T bank (BBT) spread.

On the neutral side -- I chickened out on my September inflation trade (short 2 Sep (Deutsche Bank Commodity ETF (DBC) 22 puts) and rolled it down and forward (short 3 Oct DBC 21 puts). DBC closed at 21.93 on Friday -- too close for comfort.

I am still net positive $ on the trade and continue to believe in the logic that underpins it. I am convinced that we are in for 70s style inflation (or worse), due to the spendthrift ways of the Democrats in this Administration and Congress (and, to be fair, the big-government Republicans before them).

It is only a matter of time before commodities skyrocket due to the weakening and debased dollar. In my view, precious metals are first out of the gate-- with gold, silver and platinum all showing breakout strength this week.

But if DBC doesn't start upward this month, I'll buy back the Oct puts and keep rolling down and forward until it does.

Update on the interest rate trade

The TBT/TLT option trade worked out in my favor. Now I'm using the same technique with the S&P 500 - I'm short one September ProShares S&P 500 Double Short put at 39. Again, I collected about $35 in premium - but this time I used it to buy a Sept 67 call for $20. That is a mere $9 after commissions, but it puts me in position to make a profit if the market tanks before the 3rd Friday in September. If it goes up modestly or stays neutral, I keep the nine bucks. Not a bad deal. I'll let you know how it turns out.